The latest CFSv2 models seem to be suggesting a chance of a Scandi high in December, and northern blocking in February. and high pressure to our east in March (albeit that could just bring warm air like this March).

However if I recall correctly, this time last year it was showing northern blocking for the whole winter.

 

I think it's worth stressing here that there's a difference between 'high pressure' and a block.  By definition a block deflects the prevailing jet stream and to do that it has to be positioned in relatively high latitudes.  High pressure too far south isn't a block - mid latitude blocks invariably come with energy riding over the top.  

My understanding is that any region of high pressure, regardless of positioning, that is slow moving to unmovable would be considered a 'block'?

Take all long range models with a huge shovel full of salt, all of them are rubbish but fun nonetheless.

[/quote

Looks milder than average for all parts of Europe but the chances of colder than average more so for the UK and Ireland. Perhaps the occasional north westerly flow?

]

 

Edited by user  07 October 2017 11:34:09  | Reason: Not specified

---

Home Location - Kellands Lane, Okehampton, Devon (200m ASL)
---------------------------------------
Sean Moon
Magical Moon
www.magical-moon.com

Take all long range models with a huge shovel full of salt, all of them are rubbish but fun nonetheless.

[/quote

Looks milder than average for all parts of Europe but the chances of colder than average more so for the UK and Ireland. Perhaps the occasional north westerly flow?

]

 

Come on tally, we only take notice of them when the blue crayon has been used. 😁

 

My understanding is that any region of high pressure, regardless of positioning, that is slow moving to unmovable would be considered a 'block'?

Well, as I understand it, high pressure to our south is its natural position and therefore cannot be considered to be a block because it's not blocking anything.  A 'block' means a high pressure at the surface and aloft that is deflecting the usual west-east progression of the jetstream and associated weather systems.  If it's not having that effect it isn't a block.

FWIW (and apologies if this has already been posted) but Accuweather are going for a cold winter across the pond, especially in the upper MidWest and North East. That always fills me with dread because I think of all that colder than normal air firing up LPs off Labrador, even if there is a no proven connection with weather on this side or the pond.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894

FWIW (and apologies if this has already been posted) but Accuweather are going for a cold winter across the pond, especially in the upper MidWest and North East. That always fills me with dread because I think of all that colder than normal air firing up LPs off Labrador, even if there is a no proven connection with weather on this side or the pond.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894

Yes it didn't used to necessarily mean a mild winter of us, but this pattern in the modern era has meant the jet maintaining at Northern latitude with the resultant Azores/Bartlett combo for us.

 

 

Yes it didn't used to necessarily mean a mild winter of us, but this pattern in the modern era has meant the jet maintaining at Northern latitude with the resultant Azores/Bartlett combo for us.

With Solar still dropping toward min we should also be factoring in more blocking in the Atlantic so if we do see this e/w split across the US with the PV slipping into NE Canada/NE US then any cyclogenisis from frigid airs dropping into the Atlantic would again follow Greenlands east coast and into the Arctic Basin via Svalbard.

Will we see the Beast From the East make it far enough west to give us proper cold? That has to be the question?

We only need a period of deep cold entrenched over us and then see an encroaching low drifting in from the west, carrying the same precipitation rates that flooded here on Boxing Day 2015, and we will then have many feet of snow over a single day!!! ( I can dream).

FWIW (and apologies if this has already been posted) but Accuweather are going for a cold winter across the pond, especially in the upper MidWest and North East. That always fills me with dread because I think of all that colder than normal air firing up LPs off Labrador, even if there is a no proven connection with weather on this side or the pond.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894

Accuweather have produced to some absolutely crap seasonal forecasts for this side of the Atlantic. Way off at times.

I reckon we might have a winter similar to 2008-2009. So not too bad and more interesting than the last 4 winters. I think with the continued solar decline we will have a bitter cold winter in the next 2-3 years.

FWIW (and apologies if this has already been posted) but Accuweather are going for a cold winter across the pond, especially in the upper MidWest and North East. That always fills me with dread because I think of all that colder than normal air firing up LPs off Labrador, even if there is a no proven connection with weather on this side or the pond.

 https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/2017-2018-us-winter-forecast/70002894

Looks like a fairly normal winter for the north-east and if anything on the mild side: the chart shows rain along the eastern coastal states up to Massachusetts.  Trying to work out the pressure pattern, doesn't that suggest a ridge over the west and a trough somewhere around the Upper Great Lakes?  Where does that put the next ridge in the pattern? Somewhere off the east coast perhaps?

I would have thought that was potentially good news for us, albeit just one tiny piece of a complicated jigsaw puzzle.

 

Accuweather have produced to some absolutely crap seasonal forecasts for this side of the Atlantic. Way off at times.

One thing I've noticed is some of the North American agencies seem to have a very poor handle on the weather in the UK / w Europe. I don't mean that in the "technical" sense but more in terms of the actual feel on the ground and the nuances.

The climatic statistical elastic band on a very chilly February stretches all the way back to 1991. This band will surely snap soon and possibly with a massive recoil.

I reckon we might have a winter similar to 2008-2009. So not too bad and more interesting than the last 4 winters. I think with the continued solar decline we will have a bitter cold winter in the next 2-3 years.

It was crap IMBY, a succession of let-downs. That was one of the reasons why I had little expectation of the 2009/10 winter - which turned out to be the best since probably 1981/2. Then we had Nov/Dec 2010. We were certainly spoilt!

Come on tally, we only take notice of them when the blue crayon has been used. 😁

Was in response to jamesthemonkeh's post re the CFS V2 Seasonal model outlook.

 One thing I've noticed is some of the North American agencies seem to have a very poor handle on the weather in the UK / w Europe. I don't mean that in the "technical" sense but more in terms of the actual feel on the ground and the nuances.

Indeed, some of them even forget that the UK is much further north than the US and warm core anticyclones can mean very different surface conditions here.

Btw EC long range update goes for decent blocking in Dec with more of a negative NAO pattern, I think it will be wrong but interesting to see.

What happened to the OPI? Failed once never heard of it again!

It was a load of sh't. The only reason why it wormed its way into the forums was because there was a high chance that it would "forecast" a cold winter. 

Here with the latest on Siberian snow cover - Some early snow looks like it has fallen in Norway and higher elevations of Alps and Balkan's!?

 Not a bad start, given that it's only 2nd week of October.